Covid 19 Vaccine

[BetteTheRed]

I guess we need a decision about "statistically significant". When you're dealing with 10 provinces and three territories, all with very different demographics and needs, looks like a not unequal distribution.

 

[ChemGal]

I guess we need a decision about "statistically significant". When you're dealing with 10 provinces and three territories, all with very different demographics and needs, looks like a not unequal distribution.

I can understand things are never going to be totally equal. Pfizer comes in a pack of 1170 for example, so the units will jump up by at least 1170.
The thing is though, AB seems to be consistently one of the lowest provinces and of the 4 largest I have never seen them have the most doses per capita. We're not talking 1 or 2 packs though that AB is behind week after week. Throw in we also seem to get deliveries last and it likely leads to a difference in some surviving vs some not. The current data includes our last delivery, expect to see the other 3 get even more before AB gets a delivery..

But into perspective of how 1000s of doses can change things - that's about 20% of the population of Fort McMurray. If they federal government was willing to put some extra doses here at the start of big outbreaks in the Wood Buffalo area, that could have made a pretty good dent in those vaccinated. If they supported that in the camps, it would also cover people across Canada, not just Albertans due to the number of out of province workers there.

 

[JayneWonders]

@ChemGal, given that you will not advise what is the matter with the spreadsheet, I am kinda done with this conversation. Should you decide to provide those details, just tag me.

 

[ChemGal]

@ChemGal, given that you will not advise what is the matter with the spreadsheet, I am kinda done with this conversation. Should you decide to provide those details, just tag me.

I used your spreadsheet to give the numbers that I gave. Do you see something wrong with those?
The only thing I'm confused on with your data is the percent columns. Pfizer seems to make up about 70% of the doses, you have it as 53%, totals do not go to 100%.

 

[BetteTheRed]

Put into perspective of how 1000s of doses can change things - that's about 20% of the population of Fort McMurray. If they federal government was willing to put some extra doses here at the start of big outbreaks in the Wood Buffalo area, that could have made a pretty good dent in those vaccinated. If they supported that in the camps, it would also cover people across Canada, not just Albertans due to the number of out of province workers there.

I agree, Chemgal, except that provinces also had some leeway into deciding "where" they'd be distributed. Alberta "could have" targeted Ft McMurray region. Ontario could have targeted Peel Region. I think the choices of how to use the vaccine were completely provincial, so if Alberta did less well than another province, especially the big one run by the infamous DoFo, well... now we're getting political, LOL.

 

[ChemGal]

I agree, Chemgal, except that provinces also had some leeway into deciding "where" they'd be distributed. Alberta "could have" targeted Ft McMurray region. Ontario could have targeted Peel Region. I think the choices of how to use the vaccine were completely provincial, so if Alberta did less well than another province, especially the big one run by the infamous DoFo, well... now we're getting political, LOL.

I'm saying the 1000s of doses we're short by compared to similar provinces could make a difference. That's not Alberta's decision - it's the federal government.
A clinic was set up at a meat packing plant and didn't start on the original planned date due to shortages.

 

[JayneWonders]

I used your spreadsheet to give the numbers that I gave. Do you see something wrong with those?
The only thing I'm confused on with your data is the percent columns. Pfizer seems to make up about 70% of the doses, you have it as 53%, totals do not go to 100%.

The percentages are the ratio of doses to province population.

They would not go to 100.

Given the ratios are the same, then there is no inequity

 

[ChemGal]

The percentages are the ratio of doses to province population.

They would not go to 100.

Given the ratios are the same, then there is no inequity

So instead of per 100k as is often reported you rounded. 0.1% of the population equates to quite a few doses, and the differences vary by more than just 0.1%. For Pfizer for example, it varies from under 53% to over 53.2%.

 

[JayneWonders]

So, i worked the numbers a bit more, to give you a decimal spot and to remove the % sign
I also wanted to show the comparative numbers if you excluded AstraZeneca.
Alberta & Ontario are at the same decimal spot.
Saskatchewan has significant more...interesting, as does Nova Scotia.

I do not buy your premise that Alberta is receiving less.
Show me a reference, or beat up these charts.

Vaccine distribution	Pfizer/BioNTech	Moderna	AstraZeneca	Total	Total Without Astrazeneca	Population	Pfizer/BioNTech	Moderna	AstraZeneca	Total	Total without AstraZeneca
Total distributed in Canada	20,115,781​	6,090,120​	2,872,860​	29,078,761​	26,205,901​	38,008,005​
Newfoundland and Labrador	275,730​	76,200​	41,100​	393,030​	351,930​	520,998​	52.9​	14.6​	7.9​	75.4​	90.1​
Prince Edward Island	84,825​	23,500​	9,600​	117,925​	108,325​	159,713​	53.1​	14.7​	6.0​	73.8​	89.5​
Nova Scotia	520,260​	144,000​	60,000​	724,260​	664,260​	979,115​	53.1​	14.7​	6.1​	74.0​	91.9​
New Brunswick	415,155​	114,890​	61,500​	591,545​	530,045​	781,315​	53.1​	14.7​	7.9​	75.7​	91.7​
Quebec	4,548,747​	1,287,850​	672,420​	6,509,017​	5,836,597​	8,575,779​	53.0​	15.0​	7.8​	75.9​	89.6​
Ontario	7,826,325​	2,209,610​	1,156,300​	11,192,235​	10,035,935​	14,733,119​	53.1​	15.0​	7.8​	76.0​	89.7​
Manitoba	733,980​	229,600​	84,260​	1,047,840​	963,580​	1,379,584​	53.2​	16.6​	6.1​	76.0​	89.7​
Saskatchewan	625,755​	183,900​	92,500​	902,155​	809,655​	1,177,884​	53.1​	15.6​	7.9​	76.6​	92.0​
Alberta	2,347,995​	655,300​	290,800​	3,294,095​	3,003,295​	4,428,112​	53.0​	14.8​	6.6​	74.4​	89.7​
British Columbia	2,730,390​	774,040​	403,900​	3,908,330​	3,504,430​	5,145,851​	53.1​	15.0​	7.8​	76.0​	91.2​
Yukon	1,170​	63,330​	20​	64,520​	64,500​	42,176​	2.8​	150.2​	0.0​	153.0​	89.7​
Northwest Territories	4,680​	72,870​	0​	77,550​	77,550​	45,074​	10.4​	161.7​	0.0​	172.1​	100.0​
Nunavut	0​	51,100​	0​	51,100​	51,100​	39,285​	0.0​	130.1​	0.0​	130.1​	100.0​

 

[ChemGal]

So, i worked the numbers a bit more, to give you a decimal spot and to remove the % sign
I also wanted to show the comparative numbers if you excluded AstraZeneca.
Alberta & Ontario are at the same decimal spot.
Saskatchewan has significant more...interesting, as does Nova Scotia.

I do not buy your premise that Alberta is receiving less.
Show me a reference, or beat up these charts.

Vaccine distribution	Pfizer/BioNTech	Moderna	AstraZeneca	Total	Total Without Astrazeneca	Population	Pfizer/BioNTech	Moderna	AstraZeneca	Total	Total without AstraZeneca
Total distributed in Canada	20,115,781​	6,090,120​	2,872,860​	29,078,761​	26,205,901​	38,008,005​
Newfoundland and Labrador	275,730​	76,200​	41,100​	393,030​	351,930​	520,998​	52.9​	14.6​	7.9​	75.4​	90.1​
Prince Edward Island	84,825​	23,500​	9,600​	117,925​	108,325​	159,713​	53.1​	14.7​	6.0​	73.8​	89.5​
Nova Scotia	520,260​	144,000​	60,000​	724,260​	664,260​	979,115​	53.1​	14.7​	6.1​	74.0​	91.9​
New Brunswick	415,155​	114,890​	61,500​	591,545​	530,045​	781,315​	53.1​	14.7​	7.9​	75.7​	91.7​
Quebec	4,548,747​	1,287,850​	672,420​	6,509,017​	5,836,597​	8,575,779​	53.0​	15.0​	7.8​	75.9​	89.6​
Ontario	7,826,325​	2,209,610​	1,156,300​	11,192,235​	10,035,935​	14,733,119​	53.1​	15.0​	7.8​	76.0​	89.7​
Manitoba	733,980​	229,600​	84,260​	1,047,840​	963,580​	1,379,584​	53.2​	16.6​	6.1​	76.0​	89.7​
Saskatchewan	625,755​	183,900​	92,500​	902,155​	809,655​	1,177,884​	53.1​	15.6​	7.9​	76.6​	92.0​
Alberta	2,347,995​	655,300​	290,800​	3,294,095​	3,003,295​	4,428,112​	53.0​	14.8​	6.6​	74.4​	89.7​
British Columbia	2,730,390​	774,040​	403,900​	3,908,330​	3,504,430​	5,145,851​	53.1​	15.0​	7.8​	76.0​	91.2​
Yukon	1,170​	63,330​	20​	64,520​	64,500​	42,176​	2.8​	150.2​	0.0​	153.0​	89.7​
Northwest Territories	4,680​	72,870​	0​	77,550​	77,550​	45,074​	10.4​	161.7​	0.0​	172.1​	100.0​
Nunavut	0​	51,100​	0​	51,100​	51,100​	39,285​	0.0​	130.1​	0.0​	130.1​	100.0​

I showed the numbers already, is there something wrong with them?

 

[ChemGal]

To reiterate the numbers, using @JayneWonders data - Pfizer & Moderna: per 100k

ON - 68118
AB - 67823
From BC - Quebec, AB is the only place under 68000/100k

 

[Luce NDs]

Nick Pickens ... child of that rich T B Pickens, tycoon! Enough is never enough ...

Soon all shall be taken away in a burned earth philosophy ... resembles demographic stress of the lessor folk ... just to set up Rickie?

 

[ChemGal]

Uses COVID-19 Tracker Canada - Vaccination Tracker and the population data from @JayneWonders chart that was posted earlier. Trend, green at the bottom, yellow at the top, although the top is a bit less consistent. Ignore the weird label at the bottom.

 

[JayneWonders]

The discrepancy that you are showing is minimal, and it could be based on start times, or when they were distributed.
If you wish to explore the difference which amounts to 300 vaccines out of 68000 vaccines, go for it.
I will not presume what the root cause is or that it is worth exploring.

I understand that you feel that due to that amount of discrepancy that Alberta is hard done by, more than any other province in Canada, and definitely more than Ontario.

Manitoba has 1700 more per 100k than Ontario, and I don't begrudge it to them at all.
I'm thankful that they are putting vaccines in arms.

 

[ChemGal]

The discrepancy that you are showing is minimal, and it could be based on start times, or when they were distributed.
If you wish to explore the difference which amounts to 300 vaccines out of 68000 vaccines, go for it.
I will not presume what the root cause is or that it is worth exploring.

I understand that you feel that due to that amount of discrepancy that Alberta is hard done by, more than any other province in Canada, and definitely more than Ontario.

Manitoba has 1700 more per 100k than Ontario, and I don't begrudge it to them at all.
I'm thankful that they are putting vaccines in arms.

It doesn't amount to 300, it's often in the 1000s. And that's with using the biased population statistics.

These differences to make a difference to lives, so it's rather important I would say.

 

[JayneWonders]

umm, you realize that 300 is the accumulated number, so, if it is in the 1000s sometimes, it means that you must have had some that were in the -400 at other times.

 

[JayneWonders]

Sorry, i keep saying that i will not engage any more, and then I do. @ChemGal you are reading these numbers in a totally different manner than I do, and i do not feel it is fair to others for me to engage you in this detail in this thread.

My apologies to everyone, I will back away now.

 

[Mendalla]

My biggest concern with vaccines right now is the rollout of dose 2. My region is finally getting underway, but someone has pointed out that by using age brackets, Ontario is largely pushing essential frontline workers like pharmacy and grocery down the list. That is a concern given their higher risk of actual exposure. Really, folks like me and Mrs. M who don't get out much are at less risk so why would we be ahead of them?

 

[BetteTheRed]

We're still all getting our second doses sooner than we were supposed to. It seems to be going well to me.

 

[JayneWonders]

I'm choosing to be optimistic, and thinking that everyone is doing what is best for us, to the best of their ability.