Is Ontario headed for another Wynne win?

[Mendalla]

Patrick Brown resigns as Ontario PC leader after sexual misconduct allegations

Well, that changes the picture. The PCs are now going into the election with either a new or interim leader. That is not what they needed. A leadership race now could expose cracks and divides or result in time being spent attacking each other than Wynne. Going in with an interim leader leaves uncertainty about their future which may give centrist voters pause (the right pretty much have no other option, though they could opt to not show up).

He likely did the right thing, of course. Unless this can get resolved quickly, it would become the focus of Liberal attacks on Brown. In the age of #MeToo, it would be a distraction that the PCs could ill-afford. This way, the party can at least point at how it played out and say that they dealt quickly with the matter once it came out.

 

[Luce NDs]

Liberates de belle ... and choices are narrowed due to ... naïveté on the part of one stuck with sexual irregularities?

Some claim such things do not happen as free wile is good ... apparently something in the understanding is missing ... like order in Pogo's wampum ... T'us part?

Not to be freely expressed we're told as a folly ... as truth fuels/fools? Sexis there for the taking? No some agreement is required ... sort of pseudo numb demiurges!

 

[Mendalla]

An early analysis of the mess the Tories face by the Globe's Adam Radwanska. Basically, how do they run an election with a new leader when their organization and platform are largely built by and around the old one.

Ontario Tories have little time to make sense of what Patrick Brown left behind

 

[Mendalla]

One more thing: It's a sign of the times that the party didn't rally around their leader. In fact, they pretty much pushed him out the door. Three senior officials resigned right away when he refused to resign at first. Two Tory nominees in this area, one a fairly senior former federal MP who was in the federal caucus with Brown, put their campaigns on hold for the same reason. In the end, apparently the caucus told him that if he didn't resign by dawn, they would release a public statement calling on him to resign.

 

[chansen]

What a mess. Get the leadership by selling memberships and branding yourself a social conservative, adopt popular Liberal policies for the official party platform to the chagrin of the so-cons, and now the architect of this mess is gone.

Where can they possibly go from here? No time for a convention. Imagine you're Christine Elliott. You turn off your phone, sit back, and let everything go to voicemail for the next 4 months.

 

[revsdd]

Just posted this on Facebook:

I'm having a wee bit of angst on this one. I'm pretty good at reading people's faces and words and he may just be a really good actor but Brown seemed legitimately shocked and sincere when he denied the sexual misconduct allegations. But then there's circumstantial evidence backing one of the accusations. Brown obviously sent a creepy sort of pick up message on Facebook to an 18 year old woman he had just met on a plane, offered to get her into bars when she was underage, brought her to his house for a party where there was a lot of drinking going on. The social media trail goes dead there, with the accusation being what happened at the party later. And at the very least just based on that Brown's conduct in that one situation was creepy and inappropriate and showed horrendous judgement. In spite of some right-wing conspiracy nuts who are already saying this is just a Liberal smear, there's enough here that he had to go. Which throws the June election into chaos. I was actually cautiously positive about Brown. In spite of his background and reputation as a socon I thought he had done a decent job of re-emphasizing the "progressive" side of the Progressive Conservative Party. I'll likely vote PC because of our incumbent PC MPP - Laurie Scott - who I think is doing a really good job at Queen's Park and deserves to be re-elected. But this election now is really a complete crap shoot at this point.

 

[Mendalla]

I was actually cautiously positive about Brown. In spite of his background and reputation as a socon I thought he had done a decent job of re-emphasizing the "progressive" side of the Progressive Conservative Party.

Likewise. Not necessarily someone I would vote for, but someone I could live with.

I'll likely vote PC because of our incumbent PC MPP - Laurie Scott - who I think is doing a really good job at Queen's Park and deserves to be re-elected.

I'm a bit at sea right now. I'm in Deb Matthews' riding and she's retiring from politics so the nominees are all new to provincial politics, though all have political backgrounds. The PCs are running Susan Truppe who was our federal MP during the Harper years. She's a useless party hack who just regurgitates and votes for whatever the leader tells her to so not a chance I'll vote for her. I think the NDP and Liberals are both running municipal politicians but I have to confirm who's running for whom.

 

[revjohn]

I'm no fan of Andrea Horwath. I am also no longer an Ontario resident so I have no horse in the race.

She made, I believe, an on-point observation.

Brown is wanting a day in court and he will most likely get it (he has at least one other day in court on his docket so his lawyer is going to be busy).

There is no way, in the current climate, that he could have remained the party leader and done anything other than preside over another defeat from the jaws of victory.

Telling is the number of senior staff who decided that they would rather quit if Brown wouldn't resign (total count is 4) it would seem that those closest to Brown, when given an opportunity to read the reporting saw writing on the wall that Brown could not.

If the presumption of innocence is proven then the allegations are costly to Brown and recompense should come from somewhere.

If the presumption falls in tatters a judge will decide what needs to happen next.

To be completely candid I saw the headline for this early this morning after reading about Jim Baillie resigning for "family reasons" which also, apparently include inappropriate behaviour.

This will make it very difficult for the Ontario PC party coming into the next election which is less than 6 months away.

I am not as confident as revsdd with respect to the sincerity of Brown's comments. In fairness to Brown, he went public at 1: 30 am and it was at the end of what was probably a very long and difficult day. The last 2 hours or so were with caucus leaders and staffers being fairly unanimous in saying that he had to step down. His initial refusal leading to the resignations of three staff immediately and one sometime later.

 

[BetteTheRed]

Well, Patrick Brown was my MP for a long time, and I've never liked him. He's always acted in the best interests of himself, and expediency, with rarely a wave to values.

I'm a bit disturbed at the speed at which this went down, however.

 

[Luce NDs]

I'm no fan of Andrea Horwath. I am also no longer an Ontario resident so I have no horse in the race.

She made, I believe, an on-point observation.

Brown is wanting a day in court and he will most likely get it (he has at least one other day in court on his docket so his lawyer is going to be busy).

There is no way, in the current climate, that he could have remained the party leader and done anything other than preside over another defeat from the jaws of victory.

Telling is the number of senior staff who decided that they would rather quit if Brown wouldn't resign (total count is 4) it would seem that those closest to Brown, when given an opportunity to read the reporting saw writing on the wall that Brown could not.

If the presumption of innocence is proven then the allegations are costly to Brown and recompense should come from somewhere.

If the presumption falls in tatters a judge will decide what needs to happen next.

To be completely candid I saw the headline for this early this morning after reading about Jim Baillie resigning for "family reasons" which also, apparently include inappropriate behaviour.

This will make it very difficult for the Ontario PC party coming into the next election which is less than 6 months away.

I am not as confident as revsdd with respect to the sincerity of Brown's comments. In fairness to Brown, he went public at 1: 30 am and it was at the end of what was probably a very long and difficult day. The last 2 hours or so were with caucus leaders and staffers being fairly unanimous in saying that he had to step down. His initial refusal leading to the resignations of three staff immediately and one sometime later.

Is presumption a funny idea ... given you can't assume much today with all the missed truths? No grasp ... like going to a bar area and having too many "slippery nipples" ... regressing into infantile operations again ... it goes round in politic'n ...

 

[Luce NDs]

Well, Patrick Brown was my MP for a long time, and I've never liked him. He's always acted in the best interests of himself, and expediency, with rarely a wave to values.

I'm a bit disturbed at the speed at which this went down, however.

Can you project an imago of another Big Collapse? Could leave us Deis 'd ... but one is not supposed to hint at such things as prophets are not well liked in the vernacular ... common tongues ... bean stuck in presence of dirt is bet'a ... muck racking?

 

[Mendalla]

I'm a bit disturbed at the speed at which this went down, however.

It did come on rather quickly, but apparently the women's story was going to air on CTV last night so I guess he felt he needed to proactively start mounting his defence. I saw around 9:30 that he had scheduled an "urgent announcement" for 9:45pm so my spider senses were tingling. Political leaders simply do not make unexpected announcements late in the evening unless it's bad news. Of course, that was the first one where he didn't resign, touching off the blowup with his caucus that led to his resignation in the end.

 

[Waterfall]

I'm a bit disturbed at the speed at which this went down, however.

Agree and the timing was impeccable.
Things are being "tried" by the newspapers more and more instead of the courts.

 

[chansen]

If Brown stays, and the party supports him while this gets worse, it gets much worse for the party. They went into full damage control, and I think this decision was for the good of the party. Backing a leader who has been credibly accused of preying on younger girls would look bad on all the PC party. Now they can say the party did not support him subsequent to these allegations coming to light.

Brown wanted to try to weather these allegations. Who does he think he is? Donald Trump?

 

[revsdd]

Agree and the timing was impeccable.
Things are being tried by the newspapers more and more instead of the courts.

It's not really the newspapers who are driving this type of thing - it's social media. Things are usually being talked about on Facebook or Twitter, etc. before they hit the media and the media has to catch up if they want to be at all relevant.

 

[revsdd]

If Brown stays, and the party supports him while this gets worse, it gets much worse for the party. They went into full damage control, and I think this decision was for the good of the party. Backing a leader who has been credibly accused of preying on younger girls would look bad on all the PC party. Now they can say the party did not support him subsequent to these allegations coming to light.

Brown wanted to try to weather these allegations. Who does he think he is? Donald Trump?

This actually points out the difference between our two political systems. Once Trump had won enough delegates to win the Republican nomination, there was really nothing anyone could do to stop him. But in a parliamentary system (even though it doesn't happen often) you have a caucus that has to be willing to stand behind you, and if they're suddenly not - you're out.

 

[revjohn]

Is presumption a funny idea

Sure.

That said, if I were in Brown's position I would breathe easier knowing my innocence rather than my guilt is presumed in a court of law.

That a court of popular opinion might reverse that can be difficult enough.

 

[Waterfall]

It's not really the newspapers who are driving this type of thing - it's social media. Things are usually being talked about on Facebook or Twitter, etc. before they hit the media and the media has to catch up if they want to be at all relevant.

Okay social media....my bad.....right now as I type the CBC is talking about this on the radio.....everyone has an opinion, but that is not a court trial.......except it becomes one that influences the courts greatly, even to the point if he is found not guilty it will not change some (maybe many) opinions.

 

[Waterfall]

If Brown stays, and the party supports him while this gets worse, it gets much worse for the party. They went into full damage control, and I think this decision was for the good of the party. Backing a leader who has been credibly accused of preying on younger girls would look bad on all the PC party. Now they can say the party did not support him subsequent to these allegations coming to light.

Brown wanted to try to weather these allegations. Who does he think he is? Donald Trump?

But seriously, the party would have had the law on their side......innocence until proven guilty......unless they are asking to run a province where they think the legal system is flawed.

 

[Luce NDs]

"unless they are asking to run a province where they think the legal system is flawed."

Good L'rd what a fantastic idea ... could such a thing be perceived somewhere? Very interesting to say least ... concerns of we people ... least to the powerful poles ...