Canadian election this fall?
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revjohn
Well-Known Member
Listening to reactions from the various parties after the throne speech it seemed that the NDP was prepared to use their position as kingmaker to wrangle concessions so I would doubt that we will see a fall election.
Because of the short-election span for Canadian Federal Elections no party is going to want to have a campaign season with a leader sidelined for half of it. Political debates by Zoom? No way anybody is signing up for that kind of snoozefest.
Because of the short-election span for Canadian Federal Elections no party is going to want to have a campaign season with a leader sidelined for half of it. Political debates by Zoom? No way anybody is signing up for that kind of snoozefest.
There was a provincial election in New Brunswick on September 15 which resulted in the Conservatives winning. And there are upcoming elections in BC and Saskatchewan at the end of October. My hunch is that if both elections end up in significant gains for the party in power in both provinces, that Trudeau will be very inclined to make his budget non-approvable by the NDP.
And if we have an election later this Fall or in the Spring, where will people vote? Especially if there is almost no in-person campaigning? I think we will get similar results to those of last time. I don't think Conservatives will gain much in the Atlantic or in Québec and they already own the Prairies. The only hope for a majority government (either way) lies in Ontario and to some extent in BC.
Finally, there is always the vote of "refugee voters", i.e. those who don't want to vote for any of the two major parties. In Québec, the Conservative position on abortion and the church keeps them out and now the We Charity seems to smell like the former "scandale des commandites". In Québec, I expect even more Bloc québécois ridings than last time. Elsewhere, I think the NDP may be wiped out except in a few key strongholes. Will these ridings go to the Conservatives or will the Greens and their new leader serve as a refuge for those voters?
And if we have an election later this Fall or in the Spring, where will people vote? Especially if there is almost no in-person campaigning? I think we will get similar results to those of last time. I don't think Conservatives will gain much in the Atlantic or in Québec and they already own the Prairies. The only hope for a majority government (either way) lies in Ontario and to some extent in BC.
Finally, there is always the vote of "refugee voters", i.e. those who don't want to vote for any of the two major parties. In Québec, the Conservative position on abortion and the church keeps them out and now the We Charity seems to smell like the former "scandale des commandites". In Québec, I expect even more Bloc québécois ridings than last time. Elsewhere, I think the NDP may be wiped out except in a few key strongholes. Will these ridings go to the Conservatives or will the Greens and their new leader serve as a refuge for those voters?
Mendalla
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Well, the election calendar for 2021 is pretty light per the article below by CBC analyst and pollster Eric Grenier. Only one province is actually officially scheduled to go to the polls - Newfoundland & Labrador. And even that is because of a clause in their election law that stipulates that a new premier chosen between elections by their party has to go to the polls within a year after taking office.
But the fixed date election laws in most provinces are, as the article below suggests, guidelines rather than hard, enforceable rules so Ontario and Quebec, where the premiers are running high approval ratings, cannot be ruled out. And, of course, our federal government is a minority so could always go down on a confidence motion such as the spring budget, though Grenier rightly suggests that Fall is more likely since no one really wants an election until vaccination is widespread. Fall also fits better with the average 21 month lifespan of Canadian minorities.
Frankly, I would be quite happy to not have to vote this year. 2022 strikes me as altogether a better choice since vaccination programs will be complete or very close and COVID will therefore be less of a factor. So I hope Ford just sticks with the schedule and that the opposition (and Trudeau for that matter) in Ottawa don't get trigger-happy.
But the fixed date election laws in most provinces are, as the article below suggests, guidelines rather than hard, enforceable rules so Ontario and Quebec, where the premiers are running high approval ratings, cannot be ruled out. And, of course, our federal government is a minority so could always go down on a confidence motion such as the spring budget, though Grenier rightly suggests that Fall is more likely since no one really wants an election until vaccination is widespread. Fall also fits better with the average 21 month lifespan of Canadian minorities.
Frankly, I would be quite happy to not have to vote this year. 2022 strikes me as altogether a better choice since vaccination programs will be complete or very close and COVID will therefore be less of a factor. So I hope Ford just sticks with the schedule and that the opposition (and Trudeau for that matter) in Ottawa don't get trigger-happy.
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BC just went to the polls a couple of months ago so I'm definitely glad no elections are scheduled for us this year!
However, the BC NDP were favourable at the time they called the election - so I guess the timing made sense for Horgan. Ford, in Ontario, not so much right now. He's another "can't believe they elected him" politician. People must've been seriously delusional voting for another Ford in Ontario, for God's sake - after poor Mayor Rob and all his problems and all that drama - Ontario elected Doug to be premier. It's astonishing. No wonder the Finance Minister did what he did the way he did it. No one should be terribly surprised, should they?
Now, I'm sure Horgan isn't perfect. I could be wrong but I don't expect to see that kind of behaviour from him or his cabinet.
However, the BC NDP were favourable at the time they called the election - so I guess the timing made sense for Horgan. Ford, in Ontario, not so much right now. He's another "can't believe they elected him" politician. People must've been seriously delusional voting for another Ford in Ontario, for God's sake - after poor Mayor Rob and all his problems and all that drama - Ontario elected Doug to be premier. It's astonishing. No wonder the Finance Minister did what he did the way he did it. No one should be terribly surprised, should they?
Now, I'm sure Horgan isn't perfect. I could be wrong but I don't expect to see that kind of behaviour from him or his cabinet.
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Mendalla
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OTOH, he sports an approval rating of 55%, second only to Quebec's Legault. Numbers like that tend to tempt people. Haven't check to see if his party's performance matches, though a high approval rating for the leader usually helps the party, too. But not always. I recall the federal Liberals have often lagged Trudeau's approval rating. The question is whether voters would punish or reward him for going early. On paper, it looks good for the PCs. The Liberals are still in recovery mode after their meltdown in 2018 and the NDP are questionable, with strength only in certain pockets (oddly, London is one of them at the moment).
It's crazy. He has a cult following. He's like Trump. Not as bad but nearly. Voting for a Ford for premier was like voting for Trump or one of his immediate family.
He's just run into some scandal with his team so that approval might go down pretty soon.
Mendalla
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That was what I thought, too, when he originally ran but in the end, he's basically been the second coming of Mike Harris in terms of what he has actually done. Very much a strong conservative determined to shrink government and kick the crap out of the public sector unions, but hardly a psycho-populist save on rare occasions.
The Philips thing? Meh, Philips resignation will put that to bed fairly quickly. It won't be even be remembered by most voters when the next election rolls around as long as there aren't more.
I don't trust that he won't be more Fordian in the future. Could never trust the guy if I were an Ontario voter. Never ever. It's like buying a damaged car from a shady salesman - you know he's full of s**t so if anything crappy happens, you already saw it coming. But I'm not an Ontario voter, so that's that.
ninj
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Doug is not Rob lite. Not his brother in style anyway. He's more normative. He still appeals to the same group of hardcore white, "conservatives" that Ontario is famous for though. He will do his best to defund everyone but the police. Pardon my cynicism.
Mendalla
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That's kind of what I was getting at by referring to him as the second coming of Harris. That's really the sense I've had since he came to power.
But he was when Doug was around. They even had a show. TV or radio or YouTube I can't remember. He was part Rob's unfortunate s**t-show (he was a person in deep trouble and I don't mean to make light of that now but both are/ were in leadership positions.) I don't believe that's too far from the surface for Doug. Not the addiction but the rest of the poor attitudes and behaviours. They lurk.
BetteTheRed
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Nah, it's the way Ontario politics works. We totally do either Liberal or PC, membership runs in families, all the rural ridings are heavily conservative. The only time the NDP got in (and I thought they did a pretty good job, but they landed a super-crummy economic trend), we apparently swore we'd never do it again. It's not a lot of fun to live with, but is lived reality.
That's too bad.
BetteTheRed
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If you look at it, the demographics work that way in most provinces. The only things that keep us from a total right left clusterfcuk, a la our neighbours are: i) BC and ii) Quebec, plus iii) the wild cards of major metropolitan areas.