Novel Coronavirus

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BetteTheRed said:
I wonder why this pandemic is not petering out like the Spanish Flu did in the early 20th century. Do you think it's because of increased global mobility, and maybe increased global inequality (especially around access to vaccines)?
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Yes, both. And the people who don’t think they need to follow rules.
 
Mrs.Anteater said:
And the people who don’t think they need to follow rules.
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Yeah, well, grrrrrr to those. I actually got through a shift yesterday where I didn't have to refuse to serve a customer, although I'm ridiculously tolerant of noses hanging out, etc., especially among the 80+ year olds who have too many other things to worry about, like mobility, hearing, sight, and not shouting their PIN at me so loud that the store knows it, LOL. I live in a neighbourhood with a very elderly demographic.
 
Also higher population densities. In 1918, between 80% and 90% of most populations were in rural areas and the cities were not quite as dense as then. Also other diseases tended to kill off people with weak immune systems.

So increased mobility, more reckless people, higher population densities, and higher percentage of population with weak immune systems. Another possibility are the effects of diet and pollution by a huge variety of new chemicals and stress from many different causes.
 
jimkenney12 said:
Another possibility are the effects of diet and pollution by a huge variety of new chemicals and stress from many different causes.
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I often think that figures into the higher rates of cancer. Skin disorders, auto-immune disorders, as well. We are getting older, but not necessarily healthier.
 
jimkenney12 said:
Also higher population densities. In 1918, between 80% and 90% of most populations were in rural areas and the cities were not quite as dense as then. Also other diseases tended to kill off people with weak immune systems.

So increased mobility, more reckless people, higher population densities, and higher percentage of population with weak immune systems. Another possibility are the effects of diet and pollution by a huge variety of new chemicals and stress from many different causes.
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Dont forget the internet, that gives anti vaxxers the chance to organize easier.
 
ChemGal said:
It's already gone beyond South Africa though, and there are probably cases in other parts of the world we just don't know about.
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Well you probably wont like that I also think that anyone who has come from a country that has this variation should be traced and tested.
I heard we already have one person who arrived with it into Canada.
 
BetteTheRed said:
I wonder why this pandemic is not petering out like the Spanish Flu did in the early 20th century. Do you think it's because of increased global mobility, and maybe increased global inequality (especially around access to vaccines)?
Click to expand...
Maybe because it struck mostly young people with stronger immune systems that would eventually build more of a natural defence?
Just guessing.
 
BetteTheRed said:
I wonder why this pandemic is not petering out like the Spanish Flu did in the early 20th century. Do you think it's because of increased global mobility, and maybe increased global inequality (especially around access to vaccines)?
Click to expand...
Access to vaccines wasn't an issue with the Spanish flu since flu vaccines didn't exist yet. I think it's more than social conditions, though. This virus does seem to mutate at a prodigious rate even compared to the highly mutable influenza viruses. That mutability then combines with the social issues to enable new variants to spread. If all countries had Canada's rate of vaccination, it would be far more difficult for mutations to develop and spread. And global mobility, of course, is what got us here. Were we still in a world where it took days rather than hours to cross between continents, the spread would be far slower and the disease more localized.
 
And - we can’t 100% exclude that this virus might have been intentionally fabricated. In which case it might have been made vicious on purpose…..
 
Mrs.Anteater said:
And - we can’t 100% exclude that this virus might have been intentionally fabricated. In which case it might have been made vicious on purpose…..
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Well if we go there, I would have to add that Africa having a deadlier variation of the Covid virus, seems odd since they seem to have had a very low rate of Covid to begin with. Humm.
 
Waterfall said:
Well you probably wont like that I also think that anyone who has come from a country that has this variation should be traced and tested.
I heard we already have one person who arrived with it into Canada.
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Why wouldn't I like that? I'm saying I think mandatory testing should be one of the major factors. With travel I just think it should be ALL international travel, with some exceptions. A lot of what we have circulating here is from the US.
 
Mendalla said:
Access to vaccines wasn't an issue with the Spanish flu since flu vaccines didn't exist yet. I think it's more than social conditions, though. This virus does seem to mutate at a prodigious rate even compared to the highly mutable influenza viruses. That mutability then combines with the social issues to enable new variants to spread. If all countries had Canada's rate of vaccination, it would be far more difficult for mutations to develop and spread. And global mobility, of course, is what got us here. Were we still in a world where it took days rather than hours to cross between continents, the spread would be far slower and the disease more localized.
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We're also better at identifying cause of death.
 
Waterfall said:
Well if we go there, I would have to add that Africa having a deadlier variation of the Covid virus, seems odd since they seem to have had a very low rate of Covid to begin with. Humm.
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It's not a big surprise to me. What are HIV rates there? Particularly untreated/undertreated. Mutations have been seen in people who are pretty severely immunocompromised. Here people like that tend to be under heavy treatments. I suspect some cancer treatment is actually the biggest source of severely compromised immune systems. In Africa in general there would certainly be a shift, I don't know the level though. Yes I'm very much lumping all of Africa together, but it may have started in another country but happened to hit a heavily populated area in South Africa first.

I wasn't really convinced of the low rates that were being proposed. I think detection wasn't great. Also I think we would tend to pick up on a higher death rate here when our background noise of infections deaths are lower.
 
Mendalla said:
Were we still in a world where it took days rather than hours to cross between continents, the spread would be far slower and the disease more localized.
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But, in fact, I think it was the soldiers returning from WW1 that actually spread the disease world wide? I'm not sure it's the speed that matters so much if you've got 2 week incubation periods.
 
Something learned from the Spanish Flu was that highly lethal strains killed their host quickly, therefore they cannot spread as easily as less lethal strains.
 
Hinshaw has confused me with her public stance regarding rapid tests. I find it's become more and more difficult to what she thinks vs. What she has been told to say.

Yes, I understand rapid tests are only good for a point in time. Not great for being a known contact. For something like healthcare workers though, it means probably speading it to people in the healthcare system that day. For travel situations it means following up for repeated tests. With schools it could help when outbreaks are occurring.

The argument was against itwhen we had strong isolation practices occurring. When they were loosened picking up testing seems to be a good compromise.
Would be great comparing one hospital vs another or one school vs. another with and without them as a screening method.
 
BetteTheRed said:
But, in fact, I think it was the soldiers returning from WW1 that actually spread the disease world wide? I'm not sure it's the speed that matters so much if you've got 2 week incubation periods.
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Also, Soldiers who had served in the military for years had a lower rate of death than new recruits.
 
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