Novel Coronavirus

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we have a population of approx 38,000,000. And if 40% of all people get the virus that is 15,200,000 affected people. 15 million is an easier number to deal with. If the death rate remains at 3%. That is 450,000 deaths. I was obviously off on my math. Not sure where my head was

450,000 deaths of course is never going to occur. Massive changes would be made to deal with it. That would be like the plague sweeping through Europe.
and I think we can also assume that a contagion rate of 40% is unreasonably high as well

some of the hysteria reminds me of the initial hysteria around AIDS. Before anyone really knew what the infection was, how you got it, what made you susceptible, how easily it transmitted


so I don’t think we should panic. It I also think we should not think of it as a new flu. If it continues on with a death rate of 3-4% that is thirty to forty times flu


on another note you grammar folks. Why do we speak four like this but forty like this instead of. ”fourty”
 
Lastpointe said:
we have a population of approx 38,000,000. And if 40% of all people get the virus that is 15,200,000 affected people. 15 million is an easier number to deal with. If the death rate remains at 3%. That is 450,000 deaths. I was obviously off on my math. Not sure where my head was

450,000 deaths of course is never going to occur. Massive changes would be made to deal with it. That would be like the plague sweeping through Europe.
and I think we can also assume that a contagion rate of 40% is unreasonably high as well

some of the hysteria reminds me of the initial hysteria around AIDS. Before anyone really knew what the infection was, how you got it, what made you susceptible, how easily it transmitted


so I don’t think we should panic. It I also think we should not think of it as a new flu. If it continues on with a death rate of 3-4% that is thirty to forty times flu


on another note you grammar folks. Why do we speak four like this but forty like this instead of. ”fourty”
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I don't think 40% is excessive if this goes around for a while and not just a season, like influenza does.
I've seen suggestions for both, this might end up circulating for a while. Or it might end up turning into a seasonal thing, as some of the pneumonia causing illnesses tend to go along with flu season. I haven't looking into the specific as to why one or the other may be suspected but I think right now it's too early to say.
 
Lastpointe said:
yes. But why? English grammar is such a strange thing
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English language is what it is because it is a language that evolved from a hybrid of Anglo-Saxon and Norman French along multiple paths and in multiple locations (e.g. US English). There's whole books and TV shows on it. And I, personally, prefer that kind organically growing and evolving language to some kind of rule-based, rigid one. Leaves more room for poets and other literary sorts to use language as a paintbrush rather than a hammer and nails
 
Waterfall said:
Thinking about Jae and wondering how he's doing in South Korea......2nd largest outbreak of COVID-19.
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Yeah, it had crossed my mind, too. Daegu, where the Korean outbreak started, is a fair distance from Suwon (thank you, Google Maps) but they did say that members from the church where it started had spread across the country.

In related news:

www-bbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org

Coronavirus: South Korea sect leader to face probe over deaths - BBC News

Lee Man-hee, 88, is accused of hampering efforts to contain the virus.
www-bbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org www-bbc-com.cdn.ampproject.org
 
Seelerboy is also in South Korea, and a hotspot University where he teaches delayed startup after the winter break.

He says not to worry; goes about his usual days, a daily walk, eating in restaurants, reading. He does wear a mask when out on the street, but mainly that is what Koreans do – when in Rome do as the Romans do.
He does take precautions. Frequent handwashing, healthy meals, and lots of rest. His biggest concern is whether it will get home this summer as planned or if there will be travel restrictions.Or perhaps to teach all summer to make up for time missed with the University closed down.
He will be disappointed (as I will) if he has to say in Korea. It's been over two years since I've seen my boy.
 
Thank you Mandella. We feel so helpless. We try to avoid thinking about it; there is nothing we can do.
 
What happened to SARS? Does it still exist anywhere?

Thinking of you and your son, seeler. Damn, I miss hugs from mine.
 
Seeler, I hadn't realised that Seelerboy is in Daegu. How worrisome for you all. At this stage all one can do is hope and wait I suppose. One of my daughters is on a cruise ship and got confined to her cabin with suspicious symptoms. Two days of total boredom, one day of busy handwork and then she was released. I'll keep your family close to my heart as this disease progresses.
 
BetteTheRed said:
What happened to SARS? Does it still exist anywhere?
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Basically vanished since the original outbreak. And MERS has never really developed the capability to spread easily among humans. That's what make COVID stand out. It spreads more easily than the other two nasty coronaviruses and consequently looks like it might have some staying power.
 
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