Is Ontario headed for another Wynne win?
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Mendalla
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We still don't really know who his rivals will be. Christine Elliott seems to be in, but she also ran against Hudak and Brown so her track record isn't the greatest. We're hearing that Caroline Mulroney is getting ready, but she hasn't said anything publicly yet. Her father came from outside to lead the Federal PCs so there's precedent in her favour but Ford is also a bit of an outsider, though he did look at running in last leadership race (he decided to endorse Elliott instead). The other names I've heard being bandied about aren't ones I know so I'd say that if Mulroney jumps in, then the race is likely Ford, Elliott, Mulroney unless an interesting dark horse comes along.
You're reasoning things out Mendalla, and that's great. You may well be right. That's not really what I'm doing though. I just have a gut-feeling about it. Same as I did for Trump when the Republicans were going through the primaries. Ford will win.
Mendalla
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I think his odds are actually quite good. The question is whether he will continue his brother's tradition of bull in a china shop politics, which will likely mean a fairly short run as leader (unlike in the US, party leadership and caucus wield a fair bit of power and can remove a leader even between elections), or show some real political sensibility, which could cost him his cred with Ford Nation. In short, he will probably win but it remains to be seen if he can achieve a balance between keeping the establishment off his back and keeping the loyalty of his anti-establishment followers.
Mendalla
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Mulroney is probably the one to go for if they want a more mainstream centre-right approach, which is where Brown seemed to be going. Ford would be more the populist, shake up the system candidate. Not sure what ground that actually leaves for Elliott.
ninj
Well-Known Member
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It would be an interesting race between Kathleen Wynne and Caroline Mulroney. I'd enjoy that.
Carolla
wondering & wandering
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I think Elliot will probably run on the "experience" factor - she's the only one amongst them with any experience in government. She seems solid, approachable, able to work with a variety of voices at the table. But it will be anybody's guess who will win it. Will be interesting to see if Ford does not win the leadership whether he will withdraw from the riding run.
Ford has experience in government. He was Toronto City Councillor for Ward 2 Etobicoke North in Toronto from 2010 to 2014.
BetteTheRed
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Yep, municipal politics. Also, from my recollection, I saw no evidence of his ability to work "with" other people on Council; he seems far more confrontational than co-operative, which probably isn't what the PC party needs in leadership at the moment.
Anyone want to bet that we have three women to choose from, in terms of a Premier, this spring?
2 women and 1 man - if all we'r considering is the major parties. I'm in the PPP.
BetteTheRed
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I'm talking Liberal, PC and NDP. No other party will win in Ontario (and in fact, the chances of another NDP government seem impossibly slim to me at present.) You are betting that a male leads the PC? I somehow don't think so, with both Elliot and Mulroney in the running.
Mendalla
Happy headbanging ape!!
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Keep in mind that Mulroney's old man also had limited political experience save one leadership bid when he won the federal PC leadership and he ended up in 24 Sussex fairly soon afterwards. Caroline will play the business experience card just like he did.
BTW, did anyone else know she's married to Lewis Lapham's (famous writer and magazine editor) son? I was reading up on her last night and had not heard that before.
Mendalla
Happy headbanging ape!!
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I wish I was as sure of that as you. The party is in disarray which means a takeover by "Ford Nation" is not unimaginable. All he needs to do is invoke Rob's memory and play the "Trump card" to pull in disaffected so-cons (i.e. angry straight white cis-males) and he might just win. There's also a non-0 chance he'll scare off the centre and hand the election to Wynne on a silver platter but right now, we're talking about the leadership race, not the election.
BetteTheRed
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I like to think that Ontarians are not as ignorant and gullible as Americans, but I've been proved wrong before.
chansen
Had a point all along
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I hate to admit that you may be right.
Ford doesn't need all of Ontario. He needs PC party members. A lot of which are religious/so-con types, expecially thanks to Patrick Brown. As the only man currently running, he will get a lot of votes just from people who think you need a penis to lead. And where do you find those bigots? In religious circles.
I don't think the province will fall for the old drug dealer, but the PC party, in the shambles it's in, just might. The Fords excel in the midst of chaos. The PC party is in chaos.
Mendalla
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In fact, given that those types were becoming disenchanted with Brown as he moderated his position to get the centre vote away from Wynne, there is a quite distinct possibility of an uprising in the party by that faction, which would favour Ford.
BetteTheRed
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I don't know, guys. The party's absolute keen-ness to completely bail on Brown, to push him out, sounds like a real harbinger of a female leader choice, especially when they've got two solid choices, versus a gently-used drug dealer.