Dougie has a majority so doesn't face another election until 2030. That's a lot of time for him to get enough right to keep his base and more peripheral supporters onside. And both opposition parties continue to struggle internally (the Liberals are in a leadership race for starters, with John Fraser currently in as an interim). There's a strong segment of the electorate that wants stability and clarity and the opposition isn't providing that in their current state. So I don't think Ford losing is a fait accompli at all. All it would take would be him rising to the occasion and showing he can manage a crisis or at least keep the province stable through the current economic turmoil to keep those voters onside in 2030. This will still be Ford's election to lose but if the opposition can't get their act together and present a clear, solid alternative, he could easily stay in. Latest poll I could find from Ipsos has the Libs rising but the PCs still up by 7%. The Liberals can make that up by 2030, but that assumes nothing happens to cause them to lose ground (e.g. a poor choice for their new leader).
Liberals gain momentum as opposition shifts, while Ford’s leadership and re-election prospects remain resilient.
www.ipsos.com
