The French election

[Mendalla]

Wow. That's an interesting outcome of the first round of the French presidential vote. The top two candidates, who advance to round 2, are centrist Emmanuel Macron (who started his own party just last year) and the alt-right National Front's leader Marine Le Pen. The two traditional French parties, the Conservatives and the Socialists, are getting shut out. That would be like a Canadian election being a race between the Greens and the Bloc.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/france-election-vote-1.4081777

 

[Mendalla]

I suppose the good news is that every poll suggests that Macron should handily win the second round, handing the European alt-right it's second defeat this year (after Gert Wilders' party got a less than expected showing in the Dutch election). OTOH, the fact that she made it this far and did so well in the first round isn't exactly a stellar endorsement of the French mainstream.

 

[Mendalla]

So, with 93% of the vote counted, Macron has 23.56% followed by Le Pen at 21.94% setting up a potentially interesting second round. Per the BBC News Twitter channel.

 

[revsdd]

It certainly re-enforces what seems to be a common trend in the Western world recently against traditional style candidates. To some extent even the election of Trudeau here in Canada fits in with that because Justin himself - with his eternal sunny optimism - was a different kind of leader. Traditional politicians are taking a bit of a beating recently.

 

[Mendalla]

It certainly re-enforces what seems to be a common trend in the Western world recently against traditional style candidates. To some extent even the election of Trudeau here in Canada fits in with that because Justin himself - with his eternal sunny optimism - was a different kind of leader. Traditional politicians are taking a bit of a beating recently.

He was certainly a contrast with Harper and even with Martin & Chretien to some degree. Still, not quite as out of left field as the two French candidates. I'm seeing more and more traditional Liberal DNA showing in his administration, too. Whether that hurts him or not depends on what he delivers between now and 2019.

 

[Inukshuk]

I suppose the good news is that every poll suggests that Macron should handily win the second round, handing the European alt-right it's second defeat this year (after Gert Wilders' party got a less than expected showing in the Dutch election). OTOH, the fact that she made it this far and did so well in the first round isn't exactly a stellar endorsement of the French mainstream.

Didn't every poll in the American election suggest that Clinton would win?
It seems the western world has an appetite for inciting racial hatred; and playing upon people's fear and greed.

 

[Mendalla]

Didn't every poll in the American election suggest that Clinton would win?
It seems the western world has an appetite for inciting racial hatred; and playing upon people's fear and greed.

France is a somewhat different situation, I think, since we have more than polls: We have the results of the first round of balloting. The fact is that a large majority of voters DID NOT vote for Le Pen or even other right-wing candidates. A couple of the failed candidates had already endorsed Machron before the votes were even all in. Unless there is some kind of a groundswell towards her among those who supported the other candidates, it will be hard for Le Pen to pull this one out of the fire. Not impossible, but very difficult.

 

[Kimmio Laughterlove]

Looks like Macron won with over 60% and Le Pen lost with about 35%

 

[Mendalla]

Actually, it's higher. More like 65-35 (since 60-35 doesn't add up when there are only two candidates ).

The Guardian's live feed on the election for those who want a source.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...ential-election-emmanuel-macron-marine-le-pen

 

[Mendalla]

The problem is going to be the parliamentary elections, which are coming up next. Macron leads his own, brand new party so is unlikely to have a majority supporting him. So we could end up with a situation similar to what we had in much of Obama's administration where the executive and legislative branches are perpetually at loggerheads.

 

[Jae]

Didn't every poll in the American election suggest that Clinton would win?

Most did. Not all.

 

[Mendalla]

Most did. Not all.

However, in the French election, the polls seem to have been on the money. Not sure why they did so much better than in the US.

 

[chansen]

Actually, the U.S. polls were't that bad. Trump just slightly overperformed in the key states. He lost the popular vote by about what most polls expected going in. Everything was within margins of error. 538 even gave Trump a 28% chance of victory in the days leading up to the election.

 

[Kimmio Laughterlove]

Yes I know 65+35= 100. The numbers I was reading weren't exact. I read around 60. Closer to 65 perhaps. Maybe there were a lot of spoiled ballots to account for a few %.

 

[Graeme Decarie]

Hold the cheers. Macron had strong support from the Rothschild family. He also has close connections with a very far right wing group sponsored by very, very wealthy capialists.