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I am surprised Dr Henry said that Kimmio. It feel like things change hourly so to make a comment about what I’ll happen in 18 months seems odd

i do think that they are slowly trying to make people realize this isn’t a short term issue though
 
Dr Henry has not said that. She has indicated that there will be a gradual return to whatever is normal now. We will not be in "lockdown" for 18 months
 
Kimmio Laughterlove said:
Sorry to bring this up, but something Henry said just caused me concern.

bc.ctvnews.ca

What will it take for B.C. to relax COVID-19 restrictions? Officials to share details soon

B.C. health officials are developing plans for an eventual relaxing of some of the province's rigid COVID-19 restrictions and could be sharing details as early as next week.
bc.ctvnews.ca

Henry said the public shouldn't expect to fully return to the way of life they enjoyed just a few short weeks ago until a vaccine is available or until most people become naturally immune to the virus. (Italics mine)

We are being told a vaccine could be a year away. Can a person become naturally immune without catching and recovering from the virus? So that means several months to a year in lockdown, or wait until it’s spread to everybody and killed some (which I thought was the whole reason we are under these restrictions, so as not to allow that to happen), before they will lift restrictions? Is that what that means?! I get serious “cull the herd” vibes from that.
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@Northwind i quoted what she said here.
 
The age of people dying from Corona in BC is skewed. Most of the deaths were related to nursing homes so that will mean older people generally. I don't know specifics re:BC right now. There have been many younger people who have died from this illness. A man in his early 30's in Peace River, AB is one that comes to mind. Yes, he had asthma. Does that make him expendable?
 
From the article What will it take

"Henry said the public shouldn't expect to fully return to the way of life they enjoyed just a few short weeks ago until a vaccine is available or until most people have built a natural immunity to the virus."

There is talk of easing restrictions gradually.
 
There was an epidemiologist on CBC radio this morning - discussing how "the numbers" don't actually tell most people as much as they think as they are not able to actually put them in suitable context. He also commented that the general 'number of deaths' is usually lagging by a couple of days, as it takes some time for info to be completed, sent to central source and collated. He also mentioned that the numbers are not necessarily accurate due to variations in reporting methods, possible lack of reporting of people who died at home, etc.

So for me, I continue to think we need to not put too much stock in the numbers right now - allow those who understand this stuff way better than I do (or ever will for that matter!) to make more solid recommendations about how I need to conduct myself to be helpful in flattening the curve and not overburdening the health system.
 
Northwind said:
Dr Henry has not said that. She has indicated that there will be a gradual return to whatever is normal now. We will not be in "lockdown" for 18 months
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She said gradual return in previous briefings.

How can we build up herd immunity naturally without exposure? And wouldn't that defeat the purpose? So it seems to me, it's 18 months until we can be free.
 
Carolla said:
There was an epidemiologist on CBC radio this morning - discussing how "the numbers" don't actually tell most people as much as they think as they are not able to actually put them in suitable context. He also commented that the general 'number of deaths' is usually lagging by a couple of days, as it takes some time for info to be completed, sent to central source and collated. He also mentioned that the numbers are not necessarily accurate due to variations in reporting methods, possible lack of reporting of people who died at home, etc.

So for me, I continue to think we need to not put too much stock in the numbers right now - allow those who understand this stuff way better than I do (or ever will for that matter!) to make more solid recommendations about how I need to conduct myself to be helpful in flattening the curve and not overburdening the health system.
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We flattened ours. And Vancouver Island which is cut off from the states, and now the mainland pretty much, never had one.

Referring to the experts always, and not questioning, is dangerous. Unless the experts clarify these discrepancies with the public, we should question! We do not want the curtailing of human rights to be deadlier to public health in the long run, than a virus that is not as overwhelming in certain places, as predicted. We shouldn't be in lockdown because other places across Canada have more cases.

Also, in terms of direct cost to people's health. There is the increase in domestic abuse, and the fact that doctor visits are down for other problems, and people are not using telemedicine very much. People might die at home of other causes where they otherwise wouldn't. GPs have become dial-a-doctors and people are not comfortable with that, it seems. Emergency room visits are down and that might indicate that people are terrified to go into them.
 
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Kimmio Laughterlove said:
She said gradual return in previous briefings.

How can we build up herd immunity naturally without exposure? And wouldn't that defeat the purpose? So it seems to me, it's 18 months until we can be free.
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Gradual return is very different from "lock down"

We're all interpreting the information as we will. I agree with @Carolla above.
 
Northwind said:
Gradual return is very different from "lock down"
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She said that in previous briefings. It's not what she said yesterday.

Can you explain - without a vaccine and without exposure - how do we achieve herd immunity? Because one of those two things has to happen first before we get back to normal. And if it's exposure that's needed people will get sick and spread it, and some will die, which is what we are in lockdown to prevent.

If we are down to next to no new cases on the Island - zero 2 days in a row - and we are under lockdown until the summer minimum until restrictions begin easing - then I don't see how we can become naturally immune anyway.

She's going to make us wait until long after the virus threat is over, just in case it pops up again, seems to me.

No mention of antiviral treatment becoming available leading to easing of restrictions.
 
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Kimmio Laughterlove said:
Can you explain - without a vaccine and without exposure - how do we achieve herd immunity? Because one of those two things has to happen first before we get back to normal. And if it's exposure that's needed people will get sick and spread it, and some will die, which is what we are in lockdown to prevent.
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I can't explain. I'm not an epidemiologist.
 
Here in Ontario we are awaiting a public health strategy to get more people tested. The assessment centers are submitting fewer swabs than the labs can handle. No surprise after weeks of backlogs at the labs and weeks of educating us that testing is not necessary in most scenarios.
 
Well for one thing, they are looking at using plasma from people who have recovered. They think that will help people who are sick. They think those people have developed antibodies.

I have been impressed by all the work that is being done on this. They are sharing information with each other and working to find solutions. People who are sick now are benefitting from what they've learned so far.
 
And there is not testing being done widely for immunity. That would be the only way to know if "most people are naturally immune", as she says is one of the two conditions of our "release".
 
Northwind said:
Well for one thing, they are looking at using plasma from people who have recovered. They think that will help people who are sick. They think those people have developed antibodies.

I have been impressed by all the work that is being done on this. They are sharing information with each other and working to find solutions. People who are sick now are benefitting from what they've learned so far.
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That's not what she said is necessary to get back to normal (even if they patent that). She said natural immunity, or vaccine.
 
It seem to me we are going to need random testing of the population in order to know how widespread the illness is, since many people are asymptomatic or have only mild symptoms which mimic colds and flu. Ditto for the percentage of the population which has developed immunity.

It will take quite the advertising campaign to get us to submit to random testing, I think. From what I hear the nasal swab is not too pleasant. I am not terribly keen on blood draws either, if it comes to that.
 
Kimmio Laughterlove said:
That's not what she said is necessary to get back to normal (even if they patent that). She said natural immunity, or vaccine.
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Okay then prepare to be locked down for 18 months then.

I'm choosing to take this one day at a time. I'm not interested in making things worse for myself by imagining the worst. Dr Henry has shown she is capable of good leadership. Perhaps you can ask her somehow.
 
The Shaw Festival has cancelled all its shows until the end of June. They are still hoping they won't need to cancel the entire season. What a mess!
 
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