What will our new government look like?

What will Canada's government look like after October 21, 2019?

  • Conservative Majority

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Liberal Majority

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Other

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    10
  • Poll closed .

Mendalla

Eastern Lowland Gorilla
Messages
26,926
Reaction score
14,464
Singh has around 20% popular support
It's more like 18% per both aggregators and it is spread extremely thin. Your orange wave can't happen with that level of support. The NDP (it's the party, not the leader, that matters in our system) would have be up the thirties with LPC and CPC to have any hope of a "wave". There will be neither a brown nor orange wave. In fact, I'm not really expecting a wave of any colour unless some party has pulled off a miracle.

Anyhow, about 20 minutes until Quebec and Ontario start reporting. If anyone is going to have a wave, that's where we'll see it starting. The Liberals have done well in Atlantic Canada but that was expected and they did lose some seats so aren't going into the Eastern time zone as strong as they did in 2015..
 

Mendalla

Eastern Lowland Gorilla
Messages
26,926
Reaction score
14,464
CBC is projecting a Liberal government and it seems justified at this point. The question now is what type. They are hovering near to, but a bit shy of, a majority.
 

Mendalla

Eastern Lowland Gorilla
Messages
26,926
Reaction score
14,464
I'm putting my money on minority at this moment. Hell, my hopes.
Be careful what you wish for. The only party with enough seats to put them over the top right now is the Bloc. Do we really think a separatist party holding the balance of power is a good thing? You can kiss any chance of the feds intervening against the Quebec religious symbols law goodbye for starters. I can almost guarantee that will be one of the BQ's demands.
 

Mendalla

Eastern Lowland Gorilla
Messages
26,926
Reaction score
14,464
OTOH, the CPC is low enough that even the support of the BQ wouldn't give them a government with any legs. So a failed confidence vote likely means a new election rather than a coalition.
 

Northwind

Still knitting. Walking the path to health.
Messages
8,103
Reaction score
4,075
CBC is now predicting a Liberal minority. CTV is also saying Liberals will win.
 

Graeme Decarie

Well-Known Member
Messages
4,334
Reaction score
1,489
I"m afraid Mendalla is quite right. The NDP may not be successful enough to keep the Liberals in power.
 

revsdd

Well-Known Member
Messages
5,410
Reaction score
5,463
It's a pretty strong Liberal minority. No real need for a coalition. I expect the NDP will find reasons to support them (and that will be more than enough to keep them in power) if only for their own self-interest. They're not in a good position to fight another election right now.

I'd say the winners tonight were Trudeau and Blanchet. Trudeau overcame the black face thing (although if it hadn't happened he might have pulled out a majority, but it also could have really hurt him and it turned out not to) and Blanchet brought the Bloc back from the dead. Losers were Scheer (the election was there to be won but he just did nothing to really expand the CPC vote beyond its base), May (the Green campaign was not a good one - they seemed caught off guard by how good Singh was and the "battle" between the NDP and the Greens was no battle at all) and obviously Bernier, who talked a big, brave game but in the end got about 1% of the vote and couldn't win his own seat. I'm not sure what to say about Singh. He ran a good campaign and did better than most thought he would do at the start but the NDP lost a lot of seats and some good MPs - including possibly Ruth Ellen Brosseau in Quebec, who has really become a very good MP, although that riding is still too close to call according to CBC and Brosseau is locked in a tight fight with a Bloc candidate.

I also noticed that Ralph Goodale and Lisa Raitt both lost their seats, and that the Liberals couldn't hold any of their 3 seats in Alberta. Folks there are going to be a bit testy I think.
 

ChemGal

One with keen eye
Messages
11,283
Reaction score
3,189
Conservatives actually got the most number of votes, for what's counted for now.
 
Messages
22,709
Reaction score
3,690
The NDP was predicted to lose seats in Quebec. Realistically, I should remember to pay more attention to the Bloc. I hoped the NDP would gain several more seats across Canada, but they didn’t. Still, Singh did well because the Federal NDP was on the verge of extinction at the start of the election. Even I didn’t think Singh - I had hardly heard him - had the spark in him that he turned out to have. He got me feeling more hopeful. I was feeling pretty depressed and hopeless about politics pre-election...disappointed with Trudeau, resentful of Scheer’s “Harper light” tone, not very confident with May, terrified of Bernier...then Singh really moved up from behind and finally showed us who he is, thankfully.
 
Last edited:

Mendalla

Eastern Lowland Gorilla
Messages
26,926
Reaction score
14,464
So, Wondercafe2 called it. Not that it was a tough call. It seemed to be where things were headed.

Both the Bloc and the NDP have enough seats to prop up the Liberals. The NDP would be the natural choice but at least Trudeau has another option.

This could be a minority that lasts a while. The Bloc has no interest in another election since they aren't trying to get into government anyhow and the NDP will likely want some time to regroup after last night. And Scheer lacks the seats to challenge. He would need both the BQ and NDP on side and, frankly, I don't see that happening.
 

Luce NDs

Well-Known Member
Messages
41,703
Reaction score
3,609
Problem as I see it is that the wave is brown - combo of green and orange...
Very appropriate as the thin numbered intellectual portion ... are browned off at the emotional goings on ... thus Pooh carries ...
 

mgagnonlv

Well-Known Member
Messages
165
Reaction score
106
I think the NDP challenge is to keep a united view of Canada. If you compare last night's results with 2015 results, it's easy to conclude that the NDP results outside Québec were almost as good as they were in 2015, which is not too bad for a party that decided to boot its leader out two years ago. The problem will be whether or not the NDP will dismiss Québec like they did in the 1970s-2000 (basically until Jack Layton came around and Thomas Mulcair won his seat in 2007). I tend to believe Jagmeet Singh when he says he won't, but what about the rank and file and especially the staff?

Riding wise, the NDP won 44 seats in 2015, including 16 in Québec. Removing those meant the NDP won 28 seats outside Québec. It won 23 seats outside Québec this time. As for rebuilding the party, the NDP had a few decent second places in Nova Scotia, Québec (4-5 which is very few), Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan (2), Alberta (2-3), BC and the NorthWest Territories. They need to build on that for next election. Will the party follow the leader?

For the Conservatives, I see the problem the other way around. The rank and file and the party organization is there, but I'm not sure the leader is an asset. Not that I complain...

As for the Liberals, Justin Trudeau needs to remind himself that one doesn't govern by selfies but by policies.
 
Top